Tropical Weather Outlook Text (partial)
This morning 99L is centered just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and is producing gale-force winds over the water to the north of Hispaniola. Surface data indicates that the low continues to lack a well-defined center, Although upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development during the next day or so, they are expected to become a little more favorable by the weekend, and this system could become a tropical depression during the next couple of days. Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong winds are likely over Puerto Rico and surrounding areas today.
* Formation chance though 48 hours is medium at 50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days is high at 80 percent
This morning all of south Florida and much of central Florida are in the 5-day cone of probability which means everyone in that area should monitor this threat closely. As was stated yesterday, much can happen in five days, there is a possibility on the current forecasted course, we will have at a minimum, strong wind and rain. The wind models for the most part do not show a high potential for 99L to become a major hurricane, except for two models, one which shows 99L reaching strong Category 3 and the other reaching Category 4 Hurricane status. Keep in mind any storm can have consequences for people and communities that do not take the threat seriously.
Repeating yesterday’s message, it is still early but agencies with preparedness responsibilities should be taking actions, including providing preparedness information to the community. In the community, we all need to assess our home and our family for preparedness, which includes checking your home protection as well as your family plan.
Protective Action Recommendations
Currently there are no protective action recommendations although there are preparedness action recommendations found in the previous section. For residents of South Florida (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Monroe counties) a comprehensive page for preparedness can be found at Ready South Florida. For additional information go to the FEMA Hurricane page atReady.gov.
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Chuck Lanzachucklanza@mac.com
www.chucklanza.com
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