After getting busted for rigging the 2012 redistricting maps, the Republican-led Florida legislature (namely the Senate), who admitted guilt, will be convening next week in Tallahassee to redraw the lines for a number of congressional districts, some of which will are currently held by Republicans that stand to lose big once the final lines are drawn.
The Florida Senate has just posted a proposed “base” map to work off of all the state’s congressional districts. The map redraws some Republican-leaning districts to lean Democrat and vic-a-versa, although Democrats will have the overall advantage over their GOP foes.The congressional district that changes the most is FL CD 2, which is currently held by Democrat Rep. Gwen Graham, who barely beat Republican Congressman Steve Southerland in 2014. Now the district looks like it will completely favor Republicans, putting Graham in the position of running a losing reelection campaign, or taking her chance in the 2016 U.S. Senate Democratic primary race.
Republican Attorney Mary Thomas has already file to run against Graham, and could be an early favorite to win the seat.
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Expect more Republicans to jump into this race. The district will probably be chalked up as a “safe” GOP seat.
Rep. David Jolly’s barely-leaning Republican seat now favors Democrats. He is out. Having anticipate this, Jolly has announced that he is running for the U.S. Senate to replace Marco Rubio who is vacating his seat to run for president.
Republican-turned-Independent-turned Democrat, nine lives Charlie Crist, will most likely run for Jolly’s seat, and probably win.Rep. Lois Frankel (D) may primary challenge Rep.Ted Deutch (D) seeing that her home has now been redrawn into Deutch’s district. Frankel doesn’t have to run in the district her home is in, as federal law does not mandate that anyone running for federal office must live in district they look to represent.
Florida’s 18th congressional district will most likely lean more Republican. This is obviously good news for the GOP, and the 7 or so announced congressional candidates, which include combat veteran and double amputee Brian Mast, St. Lucie County Commissioner Tod Mowery, businessman Paul Spain, Martin County School Board Member Rebecca Negron, along with others, are surely toasting their orange juice this morning.
Former Congressman Allen West narrowly lost to Rep. Patrick Murphy(D) in this R+1 district in 2012. After the dust settles, the district to reach R+3.
Rep. Carlos Curbelo’s FL CD seat is a toss up according to the new maps. The Republican loses in some areas, but gains in others. The seat will remain purple in color.
The same goes for Rep. Alan Grayson’s seat in FL CD 9. The outspoken liberal Democrat is running for the U.S. Senate, so his seat is up for grabs as well. Grayson’s girlfriend Dena Mining and his former aide Susannah Randolph are in what could turn out to be a soap opera of a Democratic primary race. According to the proposed maps, Grayson’s seat is now vulnerable, having lost a big swath of Democrat-voting Hispanic.Rep. Daniel Webster (R) could be in trouble. The popular congressman’s seat will now embrace more Democrats, putting him in jeopardy of losing reelection. Now, Webster’s district isn’t a lost cause like David Jolly’s, but it won’t be a walk in the park for him to retain the seat either.
As expected, the congressional districts of Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D), Tom Rooney (R), Bill Posey (R), Frederica Wilson (D), Alcee Hastings (D), and a few others, will be safe.
