Javier Manjarres is a nationally renowned award-winning political journalist. Diverse New Media, Corp. publishes Floridianpress.com, Hispolitica.com, shark-tank.com, and Texaspolitics.com He enjoys traveling, playing soccer, mixed martial arts, weight-lifting, swimming, and biking. He ran as a Republican in the 2018 congressional primary race in Florida's CD 22. Javier is also a political consultant, and has also authored "BROWN PEOPLE," which is a book about Hispanic Politics. Learn more at www.brownpeople.org Email him at Diversenewmedia@gmail.com
The Jockeying for 2012 is Underway…
by Javier Manjarres
At the Federal level, there are potential candidates who are sitting back and waiting for next year’s re-districting to potentially open up seats that would be favorable to the GOP or make previously “safe” seats for Democrats competitive. Contrary to the so-called ‘Wizards of Smart’ (hat tip to El Rushbo) that are already assuming where Florida’s two new congressional districts will be located, chances are they won’t be placed in Southeast Florida, in spite of its population growth. With the GOP controlling the bounds of redistricting, it’s a safe bet they won’t do anything that harms Republican-held Congressional seats like Allen West’s seat in District 22, Tom Rooney’s in District 16, David Rivera’s in District 25, or skew state house and senate seats that overlap those Congressional Districts. As it stands right now, Congressional Districts 17,19, 20, and 23 strongly favor Democrats, and Districts 22 and 25 were considered toss-up seats before this past election cycle.
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There is the possibility that the GOP could broker a deal with the Democrats to which could solidify existing GOP Congressional seats as well as Democrat seats like District 19 and 23. Two new congressional seats will be drawn- one of the two new seats could be located in Southwest Florida, and the other could split up existing Congressional District 2, creating two GOP-friendly seats. It’s also possible that no deal will be brokered and strong Democrat seats like District 17, 19, and 20 could be even made stronger by giving back portions of surrounding Districts that lean ‘D’, while taking ‘R’ leaning areas out of either Districts 17 or 19 and redrawing them into part of District 20. We’ll have to wait to see what the ‘powers that be’ will do to redraw the ‘battle’ lines that were last drawn in 2000.
There is also a lot of buzz going around throughout political circles as to who will be announcing their intentions to seek higher office for the 2012 election cycle. At the Senatorial level, GOP strategists that are in ‘the know’ believe that Senator George LeMieux will definitely run against Senator Bill Nelson (D) in 2012. Some other well known names being seriously mentioned are Florida State Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R), Congressman Connie Mack, Governor Jeb Bush, and Congressman Vern Buchanan.
At the the Congressional level, Republican Karen Harrington is said to be strongly considering another run in District 20 against Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz. Harrington garnered almost 40% of the vote in her loss, and she has already been contacted by the NRCC and both State and National groups about helping in her efforts. Were she decide to run again, her candidacy could prove to be a more formidable one with a strong base of support in an otherwise tough Congressional District.