Adam Geller, founder and CEO of National Research, Inc. based in New Jersey was asked by the Donald Trump campaign in May to be one of their pollsters along with Brett Loyd, Tony Fabrizio, John McLaughlin, Mike Baselice and Kellyanne Conway who later went on to manage the campaign. Geller said “It was a great, smart team of pollsters and we formed a very tight crew. Each of us were assigned various states to conduct polling.” They obviously were the best in the nation because they also were polling that Trump was going to win whereas so many others were not.
Geller had the following to say about why other pollsters had the results wrong:There are probably dozens of reasons but the most common one is likely to be that they were basing their poll models off of 2012 turnout – and that turnout never materialized. Internally in the Trump campaign, we realized that the 2012 model was no longer relevant, and to our credit, we saw opportunities in the midwestern “Blue Wall” states that ultimately went our way and delivered the win.
In addition, the other pollsters were not accurately considering the undecided voters and knowing how they are going to vote tells a lot about what the results will be on Election Day.
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Over the weekend Hillary Clinton blamed her loss on the FBI reopening her email investigation right before the election. When the Shark Tank asked Geller if he thinks there is any validity to her claim he said:
When asked if he thought Florida would turn red and why he thought Trump won the state, Geller said:I think her campaign got distracted by it for sure. But there is a lot of blame to go around on their side. That was most assuredly not the only reason she lost.
I felt cautiously optimistic about Florida. It is a classic swing state and we knew the demographics continue to evolve, for example in Orange County which has seen growth in Puerto Rican voters. We see the electorate as a whole becoming more diverse. But some public polls at the end (NY TIMES/Sienna) and our own polling showed is to be in good shape, with higher turnout projected in areas that were good for us, such as the Panhandle.
Geller and the other pollsters mentioned will be continuing their accurate polling by providing it to the RNC on behalf of President Trump.
