The Florida Supreme Court ruling 5-2 earlier this week, in favor of a Congressional district map put forward by the League of Women Voters, now begs the question of who’s safe and who’s not in Congress. A district by district analysis of the old vs the new maps shows, overall, most of Florida’s Congressional Delegation should be safe, while several will see some challenges but should survive, but several more Congressmen and Congresswomen may not make the trip back to DC come 2017. Overall, though many shifts in districts include or move some counties here and there, the consensus is that changes in most of the districts will not be enough to favor one party over the other.There are several districts where current incumbents will, due to redistricting, face significant challenges and could very well be out of jobs. Congressional District 2, currently represented by Gwen Graham (D-FL) has undergone enough changes to embolden two Republicans to declare for the CD 2 seat, as her original district shifts from very democratic to now include several heavily Republican counties.
Congressional District 10, currently represented by Daniel Webster (R-FL), has also undergone significant changes, enough so that several prominent Democrats, including Val Demmings and State Senator Geraldine Thompson have filed papers to run for the seat. Webster has been vocal in his opposition to the shifting of his district, which takes a decidedly Democratic turn thanks to redistricting. Many think he may not survive his re-election bid.
Probably the most dramatic redistricting in terms of geography has taken place in Congressional District 5, represented by Corrine Brown (D-FL). Starting in Jacksonville and snaking southward through nine counties, ending in Northwest Orange county, CD 5 will now start in Jacksonville and move westward through 7 counties, ending in Duval county. Though the base remains Democratic, several prominent democrats, including the Mayor of Tallahassee Andrew Gillum and former Florida Senate Minority Leader, Al Lawson have declared their intentions to run for the new CD 5 seat.
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In South Florida, Congressional Districts 26 & 27, represented by Carlos Curbelo (R-FL) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), shifts have been made here that could make it tougher for both incumbents to keep their seats, although they should be safe for for the 2016 Congressional Elections. Probably the two most sure bets for keeping their Congressional seats are John Mica (R-FL), the very popular and well-liked Congressman representing Congressional District 7 and Bill Posey (R-FL), representing CD 8. Some very minor changes to these two districts should keep these two Congressmen smiling for years to come.
Several counties have also been carved up and out over several Congressional districts, including Orange county, split into 4 districts, while Pasco and Seminole County, among others, are including in one district. All in all, after all the hand wringing, infighting and accusations, the bottom line is this: If you like your Congressman, with a little work, you will probably be keeping your Congressman.