David Jolly will win the special election in Florida’s 13th congressional district.

That is my prediction, but only if Republicans turn out, and if Libertarians and Libertarian-leaning Republicans realize that their candidate, Lucas Overbuy, does not have a chance in hell to win.

 I have nothing against Overbuy, but take issue that he knew he could not win this race, and should have done the right thing and bowed out early on.

 Republicans have the advantage in this race simply because the disastrous Obama care law has turned out to be such a huge political gift for them. As Democrats say they will run and win on Obama care, Republicans will only have to point the finger and blaming Democrats for authoring, promoting, and selling Obama care to Americans.

Even as Democrats, their PAC’s, and other Obama-friendly special interest groups try their best to disingenuously  paint Jolly as the Grim Reaper of Medicare, it will all boil down to Obama care.

For those of you who didn’t know, the Democratic House Majority PAC, which put out an ad displaying the AARP logo and depicting Jolly as being anti-Medicare, has just had some baked crown handed to them, as the AARP has just denounced any involvement in the ad..

The most recent, and only real credible poll taken in this race has Democrat Alex Sink beating Jolly by a margin of 42-35 percent. The Libertarian,  Lucas Overby, is trailing badly with 4 percent of  likely voters polled.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/WUSF poll has a 4 percent margin of error, so Sink and Jolly are just about at a dead heat, if it wasn’t for Overby.

If Jolly were to lose this race, which I suspect he won’t, then Overby will be seen as the spoiler. Libertarians have to realize that for the most party,  they will lose most, if not all of the races in which they contest.

We all saw how the recent gubernatorial race in Virginia played out, where the Libertarian in the race, who was suspected of being a Democrat Party plant, took enough votes away from Ken Cuccinelli, causing him to lose to the liberal Democrat.

Listen, we get. Libertarians want to make noise and have everyone pay them attention, regardless of what  the political consequences may be for the country.

I also understand and empathize with the issues they with the Republican Party, but will also point out that they need to come to terms with the fact that their party will only serve as the Republican-spoiler party.