by Lone Shark
The latest Rasmussen poll of Florida’s Republican primary voters documents a remarkable turnaround from two weeks ago- Mitt Romney’s 22 point lead is gone, and Newt Gingrich now leads Romney 41%-32%. Rick Santorum finished third with 11% and Ron Paul’s struggling campaign managed just 8%. The poll also found that 9% undecided and about 1/3 of those polled responded that they might change their vote before they vote on January 31st. This is no doubt a real surge in momentum for Gingrich among Republicans.
But now, the bad news for Gingrich supporters. The saying goes don’t kill the messenger because of the message- but with Newt Gingrich, it’s not the message, it’s the messenger. If you soberly analyze and reflect on the cold hard data below, it becomes very hard to deny that there is very discouraging writing on the wall. While there are no certainties in politics, it would be very doubtful that the sheer force of Newt Gingrich’s rhetorical flourishes and media smackdowns over the course of the general election campaign will significantly change the dynamic of either of these two sets of dismal polling data. First, the head to head matchup, Gingrich vs. Obama-
| Poll | Date | Sample | Obama (D) | Gingrich (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 1/5 – 1/16 | — | 50.6 | 39.6 | Obama +11.0 |
| PPP (D) | 1/13 – 1/16 | 700 RV | 49 | 42 | Obama +7 |
| CBS News/NY Times | 1/12 – 1/16 | 1021 RV | 50 | 39 | Obama +11 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1/15 – 1/16 | 1000 LV | 47 | 38 | Obama +9 |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 1/12 – 1/15 | RV | 52 | 40 | Obama +12 |
| FOX News | 1/12 – 1/14 | 906 RV | 51 | 37 | Obama +14 |
| CNN/Opinion Research | 1/11 – 1/12 | 928 RV | 52 | 43 | Obama +9 |
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Looking back over the past nine months, there is no significant change- Obama has a wide lead over Gingrich, and if this kind of polling remained unchanged, Gingrich would lose decisively.
Then there’s the Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings, Obama vs. Romney vs. Gingrich-
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Fox News, 1/12-1/14:
Obama, fav/unfav, 51%/46%, +5
Romney, fav/unfav, 45%/38%, +7
Gingrich, fav/unfav, 27%/56%, -29
CBS/NYT, 1/12-1/17:
Obama, fav/unfav, 38%/45%, -7
Romney, fav/unfav, 21%/35%, -14
Gingrich, fav/unfav, 17%/49%, -32
PPP, 1/13-1/17:
Obama, app/dis, 47%/50%, -3
Romney, fav/unfav, 35%/53%, -18
Gingrich, fav/unfav, 26%/60%, -34
Any way you slice it, it’s terrible polling data for a candidate that Republicans are putting their trust in to win in November. And if we’re not so much interested in winning as we are in giving Obama a general election campaign tongue lashing, just what exactly are we trying to accomplish besides making a statement?
Rush Limbaugh is on record stating that Gingrich is merely a “vessel” that conservatives are expressing their dissatisfaction through as a protest against Mitt Romney’s less than inspiring campaign. Is that really the most accurate characterization of Gingrich’s ascendancy? It could very well be that Republican primary voters are tying the knot with Gingrich, and this shotgun wedding is going to last until November 6th.It’s still early, but here’s hoping that a brokered convention will yield a stronger general election candidate.
