Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham beat incumbent Republican Congressman Steve Southerland by the narrowest of margins in the 2014 midterm election. Now the freshman congresswoman will have to scrap for every single vote, if she is going to win reelection in 2016.
Florida’s 2nd congressional district barely leans Republican.A new poll conducted by Harper Polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) shows Graham currently losing her seat to a generic “Republican challenger” by 9 percentage points.
With the Florida Supreme Court calling for the redrawing of the congressional district lines throughout the state, Graham’s congressional district is expected to lean further red, possibly making it almost impossible for her to win her seat next year.
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While Graham has stated that she is focused on running for reelection to the U.S. House of Representatives, many politicos have been speculating that Graham may be forced to run for U.S. Senate in 2016.
The Harper poll also shows Graham running away with the Democratic Senate primary race nomination in her congressional district, if she were make the run for the seat.
Graham received 40 percent support of those polled, while the two formally announced Senate candidates, Reps Alan Grayson and Patrick Murphy, both only receive 9 percent support, while 42 percent of those polled are still undecided.Republican attorney Mary Thomas, who is running against former lobbyist Neal Dunn for the FL CD 2, was quick to capitalize on the poll by launching a online fundraising ask touting Graham’s “grim” poll outlook.
Harper Polling
FL CD 2 METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 495 likely voters and the margin of error is +/-4.35%. Reponses were gathered through land line interviews conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR). The survey was conducted September 19-21, 2015 by Harper Polling. The demographic profile of the survey sample is as follows: Female 52%, Male 48%; Republican 43%, Democrat 47%, Independent/Other Party 10%; White 83%, African-American 9%, Something else 8%. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding. We surveyed likely voters in the district boundaries laid out in the base House map for Florida redistricting